Cholame, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS66 KLOX 111050
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
350 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Updated to add aviation and marine sections

.SYNOPSIS...10/1144 PM.

A series of storms will bring periods of rain, mountain snow,
winds and much colder temperatures through much of the week and
possibly into the weekend. The strongest system will affect the
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...11/313 AM.

Storm number 1 is here. The upper low is west of San Diego and is
heading to the ESE. An occluded front wrapped well around the low
is over SBA/VTA/LA counties and is producing very light rain. AS
the low translates to the east it will spin a lobe of PVA up and
into LA and VTA counties after dawn. By Afternoon the low will be
far enough to the east that the only rain will occur across
southern LA county - esp the San Gabriel Vly and the coastal
slopes of the San Gabriel mtns. The rain will taper off late in
the afternoon. Rainfall totals will be unimpressive for SLO county
and western SBA county (less than a tenth or an inch), not much
better for southern SBA county and VTA county (less than a quarter
inch). LA county, however, will likely recieve between a third and
two thirds of an inch of rain with local amounts nearing an inch
along the coastal slopes of the San Gabriels. Snow levels will be
around 6000 ft and the higher elevations of the San Gabriels could
see local 6 inch amounts. Otherwise it will be a cloudy and cool
day with max temps tumbling 6 to 12 degrees across VTA and LA
counties. SLO and SBA counties will not see as much cooling due to
less rain and less clouds since those counties are further from
the upper low. Look for most cst/vly max temps to end up in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

There will be a little break in the action tonight and most of
Wednesday morning as a little pop up ridge separating the two
systems moves into the state.

Storm 2 will be much more powerful than storm 1. A warm front will
develop over the area later in the morning and will continue
through the afternoon. Warm frontal rain will concentrate on the
coastal slopes and foothills where the extra oomph from the
upslope flow will enhance the rainfall. Lighter rain will fall
across the flatter csts/vlys and much less rain will fall across
the interior. Snow levels will be around 6500 ft, but above these
levels a decent amount of snow may fall and a Winter Storm Watch
will start in the afternoon for the combination of snow and strong
winds. A tightening sfc gradient ahead of the front could produce
warning level gusts to 60 mph across the mtns and interior vly of
SLO County and a High Wind Watch has been posted there. Max temps
will end up near 60 degrees or 8 to 12 degrees blo normal.

All eyes on the overnight period. As so often happens, the cold
front will move through the area during the overnight hours. The
front will bring periods of heavy rain, strong winds and a slight
chc of TSTMS. Peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 0.75 inches look
likely just ahead of esp along the front. Isolated rates of 1 inch
per hour are possible with any thunderstorms or the south facing
coastal slopes. The rainfall total fcst has not changed with 1-2
inches of rain across the flat portions of the csts/vlys and 2-4
inches over the coastal slopes. The only uncertainly left is the
strength of the low level jet running ahead of the front. Some
solutions show a strong jet which would increase rainfall rates
and totals on the coastal slopes and could slow the front progress
which would increase the rain totals and really increase the
flooding chc. A flash Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday
Evening to through Thursday afternoon.

A Winter Storm Watch (4pm Wednesday through noon Friday) is now
in effect for the major mountains and includes higher foothills of
the Antelope Valley as well. One to two feet of snow is possible
above 6500-7000 feet, 6-12 inches between 5500-7000 feet and
lighter amounts as low as 3000 feet by Thursday as snow levels
crash from 6000-7000 feet to as low as 2500-3500 feet Thursday and
Friday mornings.

The front will also bring winds of 30-50 mph to the area and many
additional wind advisories are likely for non mtn areas.

The rain will turn to showers Thursday morning in the wake of the
front. Several impulses are forecast to move over the area all of
which will trigger renewed shower activity as well as a slight chc
of a TSTM. Rainfall rates under these TSTMs could also reach or
exceed 1 inch per hour.

Max temps will only be in the mid 50s or about 15 degrees blo
normal and more  of a January system.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...11/1217 AM.

Confidence is not high for the extended forecast. Fast moving NW
flow will bring in a variety of impulses. The ensembles all have
differing opinions about the timing and intensity of the
impulses. As a result there is some sort of chance of rain in
every period of the fcst.

The best chances for rain, however, look to be Friday and Monday
when there are stronger better defined vort maxes. As usual with
NW flow, the Central Coast will have the highest chc of rain. The
models are trending drier with the weekend fcst and it is
possible that those two days will be dry or at least mostly dry.

None of the these systems look too impressive at this time and
will likely only produce light rain.

It is likely that there will be some warming Fri-Sun. Still, even
with the warming, max temps will remain many degrees blo normals.
Max temps Friday will continue in the 50s while the weekend temps
will climb into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1049Z.

Around 07Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Lower confidence in
flight categories and timing. Ceilings at or below 6000 feet will
likely continue through the period with a likely chance of MVFR
conditions in rain at terminals south of Point Conception. There
is a moderate chance in IFR conditions between 16Z and 23Z. Gusty
south to east winds will prevail through much of the period,
tapering off at northern sites first and persisting through the
period at Ventura and LA County coastal and valley sites.

KLAX...There is a 70 percent chance of ceilings at below 6000 feet
through the period. Timing of the onset of rain and lower
conditions may be off by up to 2 hours. There is a 60 percent
chance of MVFR conditions and a 30 percent chance of IFR
conditions between 16Z and 23Z. There is a 60 percent chance of
easterly winds between 7 and 12 knots with a 30 percent chance of
easterly winds between 12 and 18 knots. The highest chances for
easterly winds will be 14Z and 20Z.

KBUR...There is a 70 percent chance of ceilings at below 6000
feet through the period. Timing of the onset of rain and lower
conditions may be off by up to 2 hours. There is a 60 percent
chance of MVFR conditions and a 30 percent chance of IFR
conditions between 16Z and 23Z. No wind impacts are expected at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...11/317 AM.

For the waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas will very
likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
late tonight, then there is an imminent-to-definite (80-100
percent) chance of widespread SCA conditions on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, and potentially extending into Thursday and
Friday. There is a high-to-likely (50-60 percent) chance of Gale
force winds on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds should
diminish between Friday and Saturday and diminish over the
weekend.

For the waters of Point Sal and into the inner waters and southern
California bight, there is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA
conditions through at least late this afternoon, then the chances
for SCA levels winds and seas will diminish overnight tonight.
Winds and seas will increase through Wednesday with a imminent-
to-definite (80-100 percent) chance of widespread SCA conditions
on between Wednesday afternoon and Friday. There is a high (40-50
percent) chance of widespread Gale force winds on Thursday and
Thursday night. There is a high-to-likely (50-60 percent) chance
of Gale force winds on Wednesday and Wednesday night around Point
Conception. Winds should diminish between Friday and Saturday and
diminish over the weekend.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening and again
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night across all the coastal
waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will produce brief heavy
rain, gusty winds, steep seas and possibly even waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...11/302 AM.

There is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of strong rip
currents and elevated surf today at beaches south of Point
Conception, otherwise no high surf is expected through Wednesday.

There is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of high surf developing
at all beaches between Wednesday night and Thursday night as a
strong storm system originating out of the Gulf of Alaska moves
over the region. There is a imminent to definite (80-100 percent)
chance of strong rip currents and elevated surf during this
period. Surf should diminish at southern beaches between Friday
and Saturday, but there is a moderate chance that at least
elevated surf could linger next weekend at Central Coast beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday
      afternoon for zones
      87-88-349>352-354>358-362-366>375-378>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      late Wednesday night for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Friday morning for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
      evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Wednesday evening for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox